ANALISIS PENGARUH NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH DAN BI RATE TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM SUBSEKTOR PERKEBUNAN DENGAN HARGA REFERENSI CRUDE PALM OIL (CPO) SEBAGAI VARIABEL MODERASI
Keywords:
Stock Returns, Rupiah Exchange Rate, Inflation, Interest Rates of BI, CPO Reference Prices, Return Saham, Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Suku Bunga BI, Harga Referensi CPOAbstract
This study aims to analyze the effect of the rupiah exchange rate and interest rate of BI on stock returns with CPO reference prices as a moderating variable. This study uses panel data regression analysis techniques modified with moderation regression analysis for the periode of November 2011 – November 2019. The population of this study is all plantation subsector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange with a total population of 18 companies. By using Purposive Sampling technique based on company sample criteria, it has been listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) for eight years in a row during the period November 2011 - November 2019 obtained samples of nine companies that met the specified criteria. The results showed that stock return significantly influenced by the rupiah exchange rate negatively, while Interest rate of BI influence stock returns in different direction significantly. The study finds also that the CPO reference prices significantly weaken the effect of the rupiah exchange rate and interest rate of BI on stock return. This study makes two contributions. First, it gives the evidence of the effect interest rate in developing countries on investment in the capital market. Second, the real implication of this study is that the CPO reference price is a major factor that can influence the effects of macroeconomic variables such as the exchange rate and interest rates of BI on stock returns.
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh nilai tukar rupiah dan suku bunga BI, terhadap return saham perusahan subsector perkebunan dengan harga referensi CPO sebagai variable moderasi. Penelitian ini menggunakan teknik analisis regresi data panel yang dimodifikasi dengan analisi regresi moderasi dengan periode data dari November 2011 – November 2019. Populasi penelitian ini adalah seluruh perusahaan subsector perkebunan yang tercatat pada Bursa Efek Indonesia dengan total keseluruhan populasi berjumlah 18 perusahaan. Dengan menggunakan teknik pengambilan sampel Purposive Sampling berdasarkan kriteria sampel perusahaan telah tercatat di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) selama delapan tahun berturut-turut selama periode november 2011 – november 2019 didapatkan sampel Sembilan perusahaan yang memenuhi kriteria yang ditetapkan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa return saham secara signifikan dipengaruhi oleh nilai tukar rupiah secara negatif, sementara suku bunga BI berpengaruh sebaliknya yaitu secara positif terhadap return saham subsector perkebunan. Penelitian ini juga menemukan bahwa harga referensi CPO secara signifikan melemahkan pengaruh nilai tukar rupiah dan suku bunga BI terhadap return saham subsector perkebunan. Penelitian ini memberikan dua kontribusi nyata. pertama, penelitian ini memberikan bukti bahwa suku bunga di Negara berkembang memiliki hubungan yang positif terhadap investasi pada bursa saham. Kedua, implikasi nyata dari penelitian ini bahwa harga referensi CPO merupakan factor yang dapat melemahkan pengaruh variable makroekonomi seperti nilai tukar rupiah dan suku bunga BI, terhadap return saham.
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