GOLD, OIL PRICES, EXCHANGE RATES, DOW JONES, AND INFLATION ON FUTURE JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35145/kurs.v9i1.4302Keywords:
Harga Emas Dunia, Harga Minyak Dunia, Nilai Tukar Rupiah – Dollar, Indeks Dow Jones, Indeks Harga Saham GabunganAbstract
This study aims to determine the effect of world gold price, world oil price, rupiah–dollar exchange rate, dow Jones index, and inflation in predicting the composite stock price index for 2017 – 2021. The analytical methods used are SPSS software and SmartPLS software. The result of this study showed that the dow Jones Index significantly affects the composite stock price index. World gold price, world oil price, rupiah–dollar exchange rate, and inflation were insignificant in explaining the composite stock price index. The coefficient of determination is 64,7%. It shows that 64,7% variation of the dependent variable can be explained by the variation of five independent variables in this research, while the rest of 32,6% explained by the other variables that are not scrutinized in this study.
Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui pengaruh harga emas dunia, harga minyak dunia, nilai tukar rupiah – dollar, indeks dow jones, dan inflasi dalam memprediksi indeks harga saham gabungan periode 2017 – 2021. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah aplikasi SPSS dan aplikasi SmartPLS. Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa indeks dow jones berpengaruh signifikan terhadap indeks harga saham gabungan. Harga emas dunia, harga minyak dunia, nilai tukar rupiah – dollar, dan inflasi tidak signifikan dalam menjelaskan indeks harga saham gabungan. Nilai koefisien determinasi sebesar 64,7%. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa 64,7% variasi variabel dependen dapat dijelaskan oleh variasi kelima variabel independen dalam penelitian ini, sedangkan sisanya sebesar 32,6% dijelaskan oleh variabel – variabel lain yang tidak diteliti dalam penelitian ini.
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References
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Aminda, N. T. R. S. (2021). Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga dan Kurs Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). Prosiding Seminar Nasional & Call for Paper STIE AAS, September, 189–200.
Anggraini, F. N., & Nurhadi. (2019). Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Indeks Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE), Kurs USD/IDR Dan BI Rate Berpengaruh Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) Periode 2015-2018. Jurnal Bisnis Indonesia, 10(1), 57–69.
BASIT, A. (2020). Pengaruh Harga Emas Dan Minyak Dunia Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Periode 2016-2019. Jurnal Aplikasi Akuntansi, 5(1), 42–51. https://doi.org/10.29303/jaa.v5i1.89
Chandrawinata, V., & Handoyo, S. E. (2022). Pengaruh Suku Bunga, Indeks Dow Jones, dan Indeks Hang Seng Terhadap Pergerakan IHSG di BEI (pp. 637–646).
Chandra, T., Renaldo, N., Chandra, S., & Ng, M. (2024). Blue Management Accounting: Water Footprint, Cost, Efficiency, and Internal Control at WKP Corporation Headquarters. Journal of Environmental Accounting and Management, 12(2), 185–200. https://doi.org/10.5890/JEAM.2024.06.006
Chandra, T., Renaldo, N., & Putra, L. C. (2018). Stock Market Reaction towards SPECT Events using CAPM Adjusted Return. Opción, Año 34(Especial No.15), 338–374.
Darmawan, S., Shani, M., & Haq, S. (2022). Jurnal Riset Ekonomi dan Bisnis Analysis of the influence of macroeconomics, global stock indices, world. 15(2), 95–107.
Dewi, I. P. (2020). PENGARUH INFLASI, KURS, DAN HARGA MINYAK DUNIA TERHADAP INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA. 17.
Duta andriansyah, fazhar sumantri. (2016). Pengaruh Volume Transaksi Saham, Indeks Dow Jones dan Uang Beredar Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) Tahun 2018-2020. Jurnal Ilmiah Wahana Pendidikan, 15(2), 1–23.
Eddy, P., Sudarno, Renaldo, N., Hutahuruk, M. B., & Prayetno, M. P. (2023). The Effect of Farmers’ Exchange Rates on Rice Prices in 2017-2019. Luxury: Landscape of Business Administration, 1(2), 102–110. https://firstcierapublisher.com/index.php/luxury/article/view/33
Hanoeboen, B. R. (2017). Inflasi Dan Suku Bunga Sbi Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham. Ekonomi, XI(1), 1–6.
Istamar, Sarfiah, S. N., & Rusmijati. (2019). ANALISIS PENGARUH HARGA MINYAK DUNIA, HARGA EMAS, DAN NILAI KURS RUPIAH TERHADAP INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA TAHUN 1998-2018. 1, 338–347.
Junaedi, A. T., Renaldo, N., Yovita, I., Veronica, K., & Jahrizal. (2024). Digital Culture Revolution in Improving Firm Performance in Indonesia. Journal of System and Management Sciences, 14(1), 452–470. https://doi.org/10.33168/JSMS.2024.0126
Kumalasari, P. D., & Endiana, I. D. M. (2023). Do Financial Performance Determine Firm Value? Evidence from Food and Beverage Companies in 2018-2021. Nexus Synergy: A Business Perspective, 1(1), 14–20. https://firstcierapublisher.com/index.php/nexus/article/view/9
Lumbantoruan, M. R., Panjaitan, H. P., & Chandra, T. (2021). The Influence of COVID-19 Events to Vaccination on Abnormal Return and Trading Volume Activity in IDX30 Companies. Journal of Applied Business and Technology, 2(3), 183–193.
Mahardhika, M., & Arintowati, D. (2021). Jurnal Nusantara Aplikasi Manajemen Bisnis. Jurnal Nusantara Aplikasi Manajemen Bisnis, 6(2), 138–148.
Mahendra, A., Amalia, M. M., & Leon, H. (2022). Analisis Pengaruh Suku Bunga, Harga Minyak Dunia, Harga Emas Dunia Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Dengan Inflasi Sebagai Variabel Moderating Di Indonesia. Owner, 6(1), 1069–1082. https://doi.org/10.33395/owner.v6i1.725
Ming Chen, J. (2019). Baryonic Beta Dynamics: An Econophysical Model of Systematic Risk. Estudios de EconomÃa Aplicada, 36(1), 263. https://doi.org/10.25115/eea.v36i1.2529
Ndruru, A. (2023). Analysis of the Effect of Financial Performance on Stock Returns in Manufacturing Companies (Basic Industry & Chemical Sector, Cement Sub-Sector Listed on the IDX for the 2018 - 2020 Period). Interconnection: An Economic Perspective Horizon, 1(3), 125–142. https://firstcierapublisher.com/index.php/interconnection/article/view/51
Nyoto, R. L. V., Nyoto, & Renaldo, N. (2024). Information Technology Advancements for A Digital Economy. Informatica and Digital Insight Journal, 1(1), 1–7. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.61230/informatica.v1i1.67
Nyoto, Renaldo, N., & Effendi, I. (2023). SWOT Analysis of Economic Impact Development of Potential Kuantan Singingi Pacu Jalur Tourism Development. The Seybold Report, 18(02), 1342–1349. https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/T58CF
Purnama, I., Putra, R., Syahputra, H., Yani, F., & Eddy, P. (2024). The Influence of The Value of Oil and Gas Exports and Imports on The Country’s Foreign Exchange from 2010-2017. Luxury: Landscape of Business Administration, 2(1), 59–70. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.61230/luxury.v2i1.68
Renaldo, N., Andi, Nur, N. M., Junaedi, A. T., & Panjaitan, H. P. (2021). Determinants of Firm Value for Wholesale Sub-sector Companies in 2016-2019 with Behavioral Accounting Approach. Journal of Applied Business and Technology, 2(1), 1–12. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.35145/jabt.v2i1.55
Renaldo, N., & Murwaningsari, E. (2023). Does Gender Diversity Moderate the Determinant of Future Firm Value? Review of Economics and Finance, 21, 680–689. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.55365/1923.x2023.21.72
Renaldo, N., Murwaningsari, E., & Augustine, Y. (2024). Examining the Moderating Effect of a Novel Green Strategy Model on Innovation , Information Systems and Business Performance. Journal of System and Management Sciences, 14(12). https://doi.org/10.33168/JSMS.2024.12xx
Renaldo, N., Suhardjo, Putri, I. Y., Juventia, J., & Nur, N. M. (2021). Penilaian Harga Saham Hijau Perusahaan Sektor Industri Barang Konsumsi Tahun 2015-2019. Procuratio: Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen, 9(3), 283–298.
Renaldo, N., Suharti, Suyono, & Suhardjo. (2022). Manajemen Laba Teori dan Pembuktian (T. Chandra & Priyono (eds.)). CV. Literasi Nusantara Abadi.
Robiyanto, & Fajar Hartanto, A. (2018). Contagion Effect Dan Integrasi Pasar Modal Di Kawasan Asia, Eropa Dan Amerika. Jurnal Organisasi Dan Manajemen, 14(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.33830/jom.v14i1.138.2018
Sari, D. N., & Purwohandoko. (2019). Dampak Pengaruh Bursa Saham Global, Harga Emas Dunia, Dan Variabel Makroekonomi Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Periode 2009-2018. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen, 7(3), 772–783.
Sartika, U. (2017). Dunia Dan Harga Emas Dunia Terhadap Ihsg Dan Jii Di Bursa. Jurnal Manajemen Dan Akuntansi, 2(2), 285–294.
Setiyono, T. A., Ghassani, H., & ... (2022). Determinan Covid-19 Terhadap Harga Emas. Jurnal Stie …, 1, 107–116. http://jurnal3.stiesemarang.ac.id/index.php/jurnal/article/view/592
Silitonga, D. (2021). Dikson Silitonga: “Pengaruh Inflasi terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Indonesia pada ...†112. 24(1).
Simamora, S. C. (2021). Pengaruh Data Vaksinasi, Indeks Dow Jones Dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode Triwulan Satu Tahun 2021. Jurnal Ilmiah M-Progress, 11(2), 146–155. https://journal.universitassuryadarma.ac.id/index.php/ilmiahm-progress/article/view/696
Suyono, Sudarno, Suhardjo, Sari, Y., & Purnama, I. (2020). The influence of price to book value on capital structure and profitability of health and pharmaceutical companies in Indonesia. Journal of Applied Business and Technology, 1(3), 181–187.
Tamonsang, M., & Arochman, M. (2020). Analisis Penerapan Model Purchasing Power Parity Untuk Memprediksi Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap US Dollar. Journal GeoEkonomi, 11(2), 157–163.
Walewangko, E., Saerang, I. S., Maramis, J. B., Bisnis, E., & Manajemen, J. (2018). Analisis Integrasi Saham Bursa Efek Indonesia Dan Beberapa Bursa Efek Negara Asean Periode Januari 2016 Â Juni 2017. Jurnal EMBA: Jurnal Riset Ekonomi, Manajemen, Bisnis Dan Akuntansi, 6(4), 3923–3932. https://doi.org/10.35794/emba.v6i4.21917
Alfat, F. F. (2024). Factors that Influence the Learning Achievement of Students Majoring in Accounting at the Institut Teknologi dan Bisnis Master Pekanbaru. Reflection: Education and Pedagogical Insights, 1(4), 128–157. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.61230/reflection.v1i4.60
Aminda, N. T. R. S. (2021). Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga dan Kurs Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). Prosiding Seminar Nasional & Call for Paper STIE AAS, September, 189–200.
Anggraini, F. N., & Nurhadi. (2019). Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Indeks Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE), Kurs USD/IDR Dan BI Rate Berpengaruh Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) Periode 2015-2018. Jurnal Bisnis Indonesia, 10(1), 57–69.
BASIT, A. (2020). Pengaruh Harga Emas Dan Minyak Dunia Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Periode 2016-2019. Jurnal Aplikasi Akuntansi, 5(1), 42–51. https://doi.org/10.29303/jaa.v5i1.89
Chandrawinata, V., & Handoyo, S. E. (2022). Pengaruh Suku Bunga, Indeks Dow Jones, dan Indeks Hang Seng Terhadap Pergerakan IHSG di BEI (pp. 637–646).
Chandra, T., Renaldo, N., Chandra, S., & Ng, M. (2024). Blue Management Accounting: Water Footprint, Cost, Efficiency, and Internal Control at WKP Corporation Headquarters. Journal of Environmental Accounting and Management, 12(2), 185–200. https://doi.org/10.5890/JEAM.2024.06.006
Chandra, T., Renaldo, N., & Putra, L. C. (2018). Stock Market Reaction towards SPECT Events using CAPM Adjusted Return. Opción, Año 34(Especial No.15), 338–374.
Darmawan, S., Shani, M., & Haq, S. (2022). Jurnal Riset Ekonomi dan Bisnis Analysis of the influence of macroeconomics, global stock indices, world. 15(2), 95–107.
Dewi, I. P. (2020). PENGARUH INFLASI, KURS, DAN HARGA MINYAK DUNIA TERHADAP INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA. 17.
Duta andriansyah, fazhar sumantri. (2016). Pengaruh Volume Transaksi Saham, Indeks Dow Jones dan Uang Beredar Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) Tahun 2018-2020. Jurnal Ilmiah Wahana Pendidikan, 15(2), 1–23.
Eddy, P., Sudarno, Renaldo, N., Hutahuruk, M. B., & Prayetno, M. P. (2023). The Effect of Farmers’ Exchange Rates on Rice Prices in 2017-2019. Luxury: Landscape of Business Administration, 1(2), 102–110. https://firstcierapublisher.com/index.php/luxury/article/view/33
Hanoeboen, B. R. (2017). Inflasi Dan Suku Bunga Sbi Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham. Ekonomi, XI(1), 1–6.
Istamar, Sarfiah, S. N., & Rusmijati. (2019). ANALISIS PENGARUH HARGA MINYAK DUNIA, HARGA EMAS, DAN NILAI KURS RUPIAH TERHADAP INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA TAHUN 1998-2018. 1, 338–347.
Junaedi, A. T., Renaldo, N., Yovita, I., Veronica, K., & Jahrizal. (2024). Digital Culture Revolution in Improving Firm Performance in Indonesia. Journal of System and Management Sciences, 14(1), 452–470. https://doi.org/10.33168/JSMS.2024.0126
Kumalasari, P. D., & Endiana, I. D. M. (2023). Do Financial Performance Determine Firm Value? Evidence from Food and Beverage Companies in 2018-2021. Nexus Synergy: A Business Perspective, 1(1), 14–20. https://firstcierapublisher.com/index.php/nexus/article/view/9
Lumbantoruan, M. R., Panjaitan, H. P., & Chandra, T. (2021). The Influence of COVID-19 Events to Vaccination on Abnormal Return and Trading Volume Activity in IDX30 Companies. Journal of Applied Business and Technology, 2(3), 183–193.
Mahardhika, M., & Arintowati, D. (2021). Jurnal Nusantara Aplikasi Manajemen Bisnis. Jurnal Nusantara Aplikasi Manajemen Bisnis, 6(2), 138–148.
Mahendra, A., Amalia, M. M., & Leon, H. (2022). Analisis Pengaruh Suku Bunga, Harga Minyak Dunia, Harga Emas Dunia Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Dengan Inflasi Sebagai Variabel Moderating Di Indonesia. Owner, 6(1), 1069–1082. https://doi.org/10.33395/owner.v6i1.725
Ming Chen, J. (2019). Baryonic Beta Dynamics: An Econophysical Model of Systematic Risk. Estudios de EconomÃa Aplicada, 36(1), 263. https://doi.org/10.25115/eea.v36i1.2529
Ndruru, A. (2023). Analysis of the Effect of Financial Performance on Stock Returns in Manufacturing Companies (Basic Industry & Chemical Sector, Cement Sub-Sector Listed on the IDX for the 2018 - 2020 Period). Interconnection: An Economic Perspective Horizon, 1(3), 125–142. https://firstcierapublisher.com/index.php/interconnection/article/view/51
Nyoto, R. L. V., Nyoto, & Renaldo, N. (2024). Information Technology Advancements for A Digital Economy. Informatica and Digital Insight Journal, 1(1), 1–7. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.61230/informatica.v1i1.67
Nyoto, Renaldo, N., & Effendi, I. (2023). SWOT Analysis of Economic Impact Development of Potential Kuantan Singingi Pacu Jalur Tourism Development. The Seybold Report, 18(02), 1342–1349. https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/T58CF
Purnama, I., Putra, R., Syahputra, H., Yani, F., & Eddy, P. (2024). The Influence of The Value of Oil and Gas Exports and Imports on The Country’s Foreign Exchange from 2010-2017. Luxury: Landscape of Business Administration, 2(1), 59–70. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.61230/luxury.v2i1.68
Renaldo, N., Andi, Nur, N. M., Junaedi, A. T., & Panjaitan, H. P. (2021). Determinants of Firm Value for Wholesale Sub-sector Companies in 2016-2019 with Behavioral Accounting Approach. Journal of Applied Business and Technology, 2(1), 1–12. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.35145/jabt.v2i1.55
Renaldo, N., & Murwaningsari, E. (2023). Does Gender Diversity Moderate the Determinant of Future Firm Value? Review of Economics and Finance, 21, 680–689. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.55365/1923.x2023.21.72
Renaldo, N., Murwaningsari, E., & Augustine, Y. (2024). Examining the Moderating Effect of a Novel Green Strategy Model on Innovation , Information Systems and Business Performance. Journal of System and Management Sciences, 14(12). https://doi.org/10.33168/JSMS.2024.12xx
Renaldo, N., Suhardjo, Putri, I. Y., Juventia, J., & Nur, N. M. (2021). Penilaian Harga Saham Hijau Perusahaan Sektor Industri Barang Konsumsi Tahun 2015-2019. Procuratio: Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen, 9(3), 283–298.
Renaldo, N., Suharti, Suyono, & Suhardjo. (2022). Manajemen Laba Teori dan Pembuktian (T. Chandra & Priyono (eds.)). CV. Literasi Nusantara Abadi.
Robiyanto, & Fajar Hartanto, A. (2018). Contagion Effect Dan Integrasi Pasar Modal Di Kawasan Asia, Eropa Dan Amerika. Jurnal Organisasi Dan Manajemen, 14(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.33830/jom.v14i1.138.2018
Sari, D. N., & Purwohandoko. (2019). Dampak Pengaruh Bursa Saham Global, Harga Emas Dunia, Dan Variabel Makroekonomi Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Periode 2009-2018. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen, 7(3), 772–783.
Sartika, U. (2017). Dunia Dan Harga Emas Dunia Terhadap Ihsg Dan Jii Di Bursa. Jurnal Manajemen Dan Akuntansi, 2(2), 285–294.
Setiyono, T. A., Ghassani, H., & ... (2022). Determinan Covid-19 Terhadap Harga Emas. Jurnal Stie …, 1, 107–116. http://jurnal3.stiesemarang.ac.id/index.php/jurnal/article/view/592
Silitonga, D. (2021). Dikson Silitonga: “Pengaruh Inflasi terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Indonesia pada ...†112. 24(1).
Simamora, S. C. (2021). Pengaruh Data Vaksinasi, Indeks Dow Jones Dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode Triwulan Satu Tahun 2021. Jurnal Ilmiah M-Progress, 11(2), 146–155. https://journal.universitassuryadarma.ac.id/index.php/ilmiahm-progress/article/view/696
Suyono, Sudarno, Suhardjo, Sari, Y., & Purnama, I. (2020). The influence of price to book value on capital structure and profitability of health and pharmaceutical companies in Indonesia. Journal of Applied Business and Technology, 1(3), 181–187.
Tamonsang, M., & Arochman, M. (2020). Analisis Penerapan Model Purchasing Power Parity Untuk Memprediksi Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap US Dollar. Journal GeoEkonomi, 11(2), 157–163.
Walewangko, E., Saerang, I. S., Maramis, J. B., Bisnis, E., & Manajemen, J. (2018). Analisis Integrasi Saham Bursa Efek Indonesia Dan Beberapa Bursa Efek Negara Asean Periode Januari 2016 Â Juni 2017. Jurnal EMBA: Jurnal Riset Ekonomi, Manajemen, Bisnis Dan Akuntansi, 6(4), 3923–3932. https://doi.org/10.35794/emba.v6i4.21917
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2024-06-29
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